{
 "updated": "2026-10-24T08:38:01+05:30",
 "what": "check_move's stated chance that a token's last-hour move continues over the next hour, scored at the top of every hour for every tracked token",
 "answers_scored": 203,
 "hours_scored": 16,
 "since": "2026-10-23T16:30:00+05:30",
 "calibration": [
  {
   "stated": "30%-40%",
   "answers": 15,
   "hours": 8,
   "avg_stated": 0.38,
   "happened": 0.333,
   "range_99_5": [
    0.108,
    0.673
   ]
  },
  {
   "stated": "40%-45%",
   "answers": 62,
   "hours": 15,
   "avg_stated": 0.43,
   "happened": 0.274,
   "range_99_5": [
    0.148,
    0.452
   ]
  },
  {
   "stated": "45%-50%",
   "answers": 117,
   "hours": 16,
   "avg_stated": 0.469,
   "happened": 0.359,
   "range_99_5": [
    0.247,
    0.489
   ]
  },
  {
   "stated": "50%-55%",
   "answers": 8,
   "hours": 7,
   "avg_stated": 0.517,
   "happened": 0.375,
   "range_99_5": [
    0.09,
    0.784
   ]
  },
  {
   "stated": "60%-70%",
   "answers": 1,
   "hours": 1,
   "avg_stated": 0.605,
   "happened": 0.0,
   "range_99_5": [
    0.0,
    0.887
   ]
  }
 ],
 "brier": {
  "ours": 0.236,
  "any_hour_rate": 0.2453,
  "note": "lower is better; any_hour_rate states each token's plain up/down rate, ignoring the move"
 },
 "ledger": {
  "2026-10-23": {
   "snapshots": 479,
   "first": "2026-10-23T15:17:00+05:30",
   "last": "2026-10-23T23:59:00+05:30",
   "head_seal": "7db2008237b47364ae488ca4e6e09989f894ecbce4052182cfd3857d71c9eb2f"
  },
  "2026-10-24": {
   "snapshots": 464,
   "first": "2026-10-24T00:00:00+05:30",
   "last": "2026-10-24T08:37:00+05:30",
   "head_seal": "952829e71b45c28ea82caddfd9049b8af4e11e3f6f6a7f5e06581cd0be810eb4"
  }
 },
 "how_to_verify": "Each answer names snapshot_seal. A seal is sha256(previous seal + sha256 of the snapshot's canonical JSON); the day lists above end in the head seal of each day's chain."
}